Newsmax reports:
Senator and former vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman will lose the Democratic primary in Connecticut, political strategist Dick Morris predicts.
What’s more, if Lieberman then runs in the general election as an independent, he will be "so crippled” by his defeat in the August 8 primary, and his Democratic opponent Ned Lamont "so empowered,” that Lieberman will lose the general election as well and give up his seat in the Senate, says Morris.
"Indeed, by going through the primary and being defeated, he will give the GOP a good chance to win in Connecticut, which they would not have if he just ran as an independent,” Morris told NewsMax.
"But if he drops out of the primary, he will be re-elected as an independent.”
I have to disagree with Morris. First of all, Leiberman is so well regarded in Connecticut that, even though Lamont may indeed win the Democratic primary because the anti-Joe faction will be out in force on August 8th, Leiberman will win the general election if he runs as an independent.
Since Connecticut leans decidedly Democratic, a choice between Lamont and Republican Alan Schlesinger would almost certainly result in a win for Lamont. With Leiberman running as an independent, I suspect that most Republican voters will vote for Joe for two reasons: 1) Because they like him and, 2) to thwart the election of yet another short-sighted "anti-war" Democrat to the Senate. I also believe that most registered independents -- and a heck of a lot of Democrats -- will vote for Joe, as well.
Dick Morris backs up his prediction with this comparison:
Senator Jacob Javits, in 1980, "could have avoided defeat by not fighting the Republican primary against Al D’Amato and running as an independent. But D’Amato was so empowered by the primary win, and Javits so disempowered, that D’Amato won the general election with Javits running a poor third,” Morris told Political Wire.
"Lieberman’s correct course of action is to withdraw from the primary and run as an independent. It is the only way he can get re-elected.”
I think that the Javits example is a poor one. D'Amato and Javits faced off in a Republican primary, and Republicans preferred D'Amato. While the then 76-year-old Javits was popular with the electorate at large -- and New York leaned Democratic -- D'Amato won as a conservative Republican largely because he was on the Republican ticket with Ronald Reagan in 1980. With no Presidential race to provide "coat tails", Leiberman will be re-elected or rejected on his own merits.
I also disagree that Leiberman will be "so crippled" by a primary defeat since Ned Lamont's candidacy is seen as a single-issue campaign. While the activist base may support Lamont and his "salute" to the "patriotism and wisdom of Congressman Murtha", I don't believe his support among Connecticut voters as a whole will at all "cripple" Leiberman's reputation and popularity.
But the plot thickens.
Former Senator Lowell Wieker was elected Governor as an independent back in 1990 on a platform of solving Connecticut's fiscal problems without implementing a state income tax. He won and almost immediately supported implementing a state income tax. Wieker -- largely despised in Connecticut (and who was a Howard Dean booster in 2004) -- supports Ned Lamont in the primary. But, if Leiberman wins the primary, Weiker may run against him as an independent.
So, consider this: Leiberman runs as a Democrat, Schlesinger as a Republican and Wieker as an independent. Would the state's Republican voters still vote for Leiberman if they believe that many of the anti-Leiberman base may vote for the anti-war Wieker in the general election? Could Wieker siphon off enough Democrats from Leiberman making the election of a Republican to the Senate possible?
In this senario Leiberman may indeed be in trouble. But, if Joe loses, it wont be the hugely unpopular Lowell Weiker that would win. Nosiree. It'd be the Republican Alan Schlesinger. And the moonbats would have to be taken away in straight jackets.
Posted by Tuning Spork at June 26, 2006 07:02 PM | TrackBack